{"id":409,"date":"2020-02-29T18:31:45","date_gmt":"2020-02-29T17:31:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/?p=409"},"modified":"2020-03-06T11:14:53","modified_gmt":"2020-03-06T10:14:53","slug":"a-non-monetary-graphical-description-of-the-productivity-growth-in-sweden-1870-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/2020\/02\/29\/a-non-monetary-graphical-description-of-the-productivity-growth-in-sweden-1870-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"A non-monetary graphical description of the productivity growth in Sweden 1870-2017"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In this\npaper I try to describe the growth of productivity in Sweden from 1870 until\ntoday. But the picture is from the outside. The graphical illustration in the\nform of an x-y diagram, only uses the data on hours worked, number of employed\nand the total population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\nx-variable in the diagram is calculated by dividing number of hours worked\nduring a year with the total population the same year. The hours worked are\nthen also divided by the number of employed that year and result of that is\nplotted as the y-value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The points\n(x; y) are then connected in time-order by a line year by year, from the first\nto the last. This line illustrates the growth of productivity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The diagram:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"605\" height=\"395\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-411\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-1.png 605w, https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-1-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-1-299x195.png 299w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The\nhorizontal position, on the x- axis, shows the number of paid working-hours\nduring a year divided by inhabitants in Sweden. In 1870 the paid work used to\nclothe and feed and house and create all the luxuries of life per capita was\nabout 1 450 hours in average. It was far less in 1993. About half as many, around\n740 hours of work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the\nvertical y-axis is plotted the number of working hours is per employed person\nduring the year. In 1870 the working year for those that executed the paid work\nwas about 3&nbsp;400 working hours. In 1983 it was less than half of that,\nsomething like 1500 working hours in a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the blue\nline is drawn from each year to the following it shows not only the direction\nof change but also if the change between years is big or small. If the speed of\nchange is fast or slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Years are\nshown in the numbers connected to the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The diagram\ndoes not begin at the null point of the axes. Its lowest value down in the left\ncrossing of the horizontal and vertical axis is at x = 650, y = 1&nbsp;400<a href=\"#_edn1\">[i]<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does the line show?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The\ndiagonal formed by the blue line from upper right to lower left corner shows\nthere has been almost uninterrupted growth of productivity In Sweden from 1870 until\n1984 at least. Development downwards and to the left in the diagram can be\ndescribed as progressive, as working hours grow shorter for the working\npopulation and the working time needed per capita gets less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most interesting\nis the last part of the curve, where the development towards shorter working\nhours and less hours of work needed for the consumption has halted. The new shape\nof the line after 1999 is unique. There isn\u2019t anything like that in the data\nfrom other states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s\nconnect some of the dots on the curve to what has happened in the real world of\nSweden\u2019s economic history. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The loop\naround 1905 when the direction of change first goes almost straight to the left\nis when Norway left the union with Sweden. The dissolution was peaceful, much\nthanks to the radical Swedish labor movement which promised to rebel if the\nSwedish state started mobilizing. 1909 when the blue line turns backwards was the\nyear of the general strike. The labor unions lost the strike and conditions for\nworkers kept getting worse until the other European states started preparing\nWW1 and demand of manpower rose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One can see\nthat during 1939 to 1990 the blue line has almost the same slope as the period\n1870 to the 1920-ies. But the line seems to be moved a bit to the right,\ntowards more hours consumed per capita. In the beginning of that period, in the\nyears 1933-39 Nazi Germany started building up its military power and Sweden\nalso called up more recruits and bought more arms. The level of military\nexpenditure varied a bit up and down but something like one year-class of the\nmale Swedish youth was from then on doing military service lasting about a\nyear, up to the dissolution of the Soviet Union 1990.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The three wrinkles\non the line 1959, 1969 and 1973 coincides with the establishing and raising of\nvalue added taxes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\nturnaround in at the lowest part of the line was signaled by a big conflict in\nSwedish industry. About 700&nbsp;000 employees were lock-outed about wages 1980.\nThe lockout failed and the wages were raised. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1983 the\nthen Social democratic majority voted to create wage-earner funds, built from\nprogressive tax on profits. Some very important Swedish capitalists emigrated. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 1990 there was an economic crisis, comparable to the famous Wall Street Crash 1929 when measured in the resulting loss of jobs<a href=\"#_edn2\">[ii]<\/a>. The effect of the crash were drawn out and was used to restore the private ownership to the best part of Swedish national wealth. 1991 Sweden asked for membership in EU and became member 1995. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"605\" height=\"395\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-2.png 605w, https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-2-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-2-299x195.png 299w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\nA few years later the blue\nline in the diagram seems to halt.&nbsp; A\nmore detailed diagram shows that there still is some variation, but decreasing. &nbsp;\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\nvariations from year to year seems to grow closer and closer to a central\npoint, like the classic spider-type diagram showing changes in price and demand\nover time for a commodity. In this case the commodity would be labor force and\nthe varying demand may be met by supply from migration organized by EU and the\nSwedish state. But not only. Apart from migration there is also the regulation\nby NAIRU-unemployment by the Swedish Central Bank. And there is flexible\nworking hours for the employed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Theoretical questions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The first\nquestion is of course if this is economy. There is no money in it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But\naccording to Marx\u2019s definition economy is a subject that concerns the human\nmetabolism with nature by (social) labor. Capitalism can be described as one\neconomy among many. And several earlier types of economy &#8211; most of the history\nof the human race &#8211; used no money. <br>\nThis method shows what is input in the capitalist monetary economy, in working\nhours per capita, how much working time is demanded of an employed person and\nwhat the economy gives out per capita to the total population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next\nquestion is if the diagram gives a true and relevant picture of capitalistic\neconomy today. Capital is not shown except indirect by its effect on work,\nworkers and total population. There is also no distinction between classes. Not\neven if income- which is also measured in working hours &#8211; comes from wage-labor\ndone by the person receiving it or from profits or rent. Nor if the working\nhours are spent on productive or un-productive work. And nothing is said about\nthe work done outside the money-economy. There is also no account of the wear\nand tear on the environment, which is a serious weakness. I still think the\ndescription by this method gives a broader view than what is common in National\nAccounts, but it\u2019s very narrow anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some\nconsequences from following these variables to their endpoints is at first\nrather surprising. If both x- and y-values gets near to zero one could predict\nproletarian socialism as it probably will become difficult to force\nproletarians to wage-slavery like today if working time is shared by all or\nnearly all &#8211; which it would have to be to get very much shorter hours. And when\non the other hand the number of worked hours necessary for subsistence are becoming\nvery few. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the origin-point\nin the diagram there is no socially necessary work left. In that position t\ndoesn\u2019t seem possible to reproduce an economic class-society, so origin in the\ndiagram might define a sort of communism.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The new\nregulation of the Swedish economy since the turning of the century, seen in the\nboth diagrams, seems to be good only for growth and concentration of income and\nfortune to the 1 percent in the top of Sweden\u2019s earners<a href=\"#_edn3\">[iii]<\/a>.\nAnd at the same time the growth of the productive powers which according to\nMarx would create good conditions for revolution and socialism has been\nstopped.<br>\nTruly a win &#8211; win situation for the Swedish capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Further research<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To really\nbe worthy of the epithet Marxism this method for depicting the growth of\nproductivity would have to show the difference between classes, types of\nincome, productive and unproductive work etc. It would also be interesting to\ntry to separate investments in variable capital and in means of production.<br>\nThe balancing point in Swedish capitalism is a mystery. The method for reaching\nit and why only Sweden seems to have got there deserves further study. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sources and adaptions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Working\nhours<\/strong> had to\nbe compiled from several different sources. I have tried to find data that are usable\nfor international comparisons and also to link to the present official\ntime-series production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From 1870 \u2013\n1949 I have used Huberman and Minns \u201cThe times they are not changin\u2019: Days and\nhours of work in Old and New Worlds, 1870\u20132000\u201d, Table 1. <a href=\"http:\/\/personal.lse.ac.uk\/minns\/Huberman_Minns_EEH_2007.pdf\">http:\/\/personal.lse.ac.uk\/minns\/Huberman_Minns_EEH_2007.pdf<\/a>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have\nadded some data in the beginning of this period from Tommy Isidorsson \u201dKampen\nom tiden\u201d p. 79 <a href=\"https:\/\/socav.gu.se\/digitalAssets\/1560\/1560934_striden-om-tiden\u2013tommy-isidorsson-160121.pdf\">https:\/\/socav.gu.se\/digitalAssets\/1560\/1560934_striden-om-tiden\u2013tommy-isidorsson-160121.pdf<\/a>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the\nyears 1950 \u2013 2000 I have used Rodney Edvinsson\u2019s Historic National Accounts <a href=\"http:\/\/www.historia.se\/tablesAtoX.xls\">http:\/\/www.historia.se\/tablesAtoX.xls<\/a>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For 2000 \u2013\n2017 there is data in Statistic Sweden National Accounts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scb.se\/hitta-statistik\/statistik-efter-amne\/nationalrakenskaper\/nationalrakenskaper\/nationalrakenskaper-kvartals-och-arsberakningar\/\">https:\/\/www.scb.se\/hitta-statistik\/statistik-efter-amne\/nationalrakenskaper\/nationalrakenskaper\/nationalrakenskaper-kvartals-och-arsberakningar\/<\/a>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When I\ncompared these sources I found that Huberman Minns and the data in the present\nseries from Statistics Sweden is about the same, while Edvinsson\u2019s figures were\nat a lower level. Edvinsson\u2019s figures were adjusted to be at level with\nStatistics Sweden by a formula calculated by regression analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To get some\nmore points in the period 1870 \u2013 1950 I decided to use values from Tommy\nIsidorsson which were taken from the union agreements, and adjust those to the\nlevel of Huberman Minns. This would give some more precise figures for the\nyears between those in Huberman Minns. Then the years which still had no data\nwere filled in by linear interpolation. The resulting time series can be found\non my blog, at the bottom of the page <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/2018\/09\/05\/restaurationen-i-borjan-av-1990-talet-slutpunkten-for-den-svenska-kapitalismens-tillvaxtsaga\/\">https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/2018\/09\/05\/restaurationen-i-borjan-av-1990-talet-slutpunkten-for-den-svenska-kapitalismens-tillvaxtsaga\/<\/a>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\ncontinuous time series of the <strong>Population of Sweden<\/strong>\nbeginning 1860 can be found at Statistics Sweden <a href=\"http:\/\/www.statistikdatabasen.scb.se\/pxweb\/sv\/ssd\/START__BE__BE0101__BE0101A\/BefolkningR1860\/\">http:\/\/www.statistikdatabasen.scb.se\/pxweb\/sv\/ssd\/START__BE__BE0101__BE0101A\/BefolkningR1860\/<\/a>\nIt has been used without adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Number\nof employed: In <\/strong>Rodney\nEdvinsson Historic National Accounts (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.historia.se\/tablesAtoX.xls\">http:\/\/www.historia.se\/tablesAtoX.xls<\/a>\n)&nbsp; is a column with the number of\nemployed 1850 &#8211; 2000. The level is close to Sweden Statistics Employed persons\naged 15-74 (LFS) which I use for the later years. I have used Rodney Edvinssons\ndata without adjustments for the period 1870 to 2000.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\">[i]<\/a> There seems to be a long way left to\ngo to get to the end of work and the basic income for all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref2\">[ii]<\/a> Oregon Office of Economic Analysis <a href=\"https:\/\/oregoneconomicanalysis.com\/2012\/09\/24\/checking-in-on-financial-crises-recoveries\/\">https:\/\/oregoneconomicanalysis.com\/2012\/09\/24\/checking-in-on-financial-crises-recoveries\/<\/a>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref3\">[iii]<\/a> The National Wealth of\nSweden, 1810\u20132014 Daniel Waldenstr\u00f6m 2015 Figure 8. shows what I would call the\nrestoration of private ownership of Swedish capital <a href=\"http:\/\/www.uueconomics.se\/danielw\/Research_files\/National%20Wealth%20of%20Sweden%201810-2014.pdf\">http:\/\/www.uueconomics.se\/danielw\/Research_files\/National%20Wealth%20of%20Sweden%201810-2014.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Swedish\nGovernment reports on the income distribution policy every year in the economic\nspring proposition. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.regeringen.se\/49740c\/contentassets\/24b2129000954f969ab9bf6b4620dac9\/fordelningspolitisk-redogorelse.pdf\">https:\/\/www.regeringen.se\/49740c\/contentassets\/24b2129000954f969ab9bf6b4620dac9\/fordelningspolitisk-redogorelse.pdf<\/a>\nThe effect on the different income-levels of reforms 1995 &#8211; 2016 is illustrated\nin diagram 2.1 in the report 2018:&nbsp; PROP.\n2017\/18:100 Bilaga 2 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this paper I try to describe the growth of productivity in Sweden from 1870 until today. But the picture is from the outside. The graphical illustration in the form of an x-y diagram, only uses the data on hours worked, number of employed and the total population. The x-variable in the diagram is calculated [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-okategoriserade"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=409"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/409\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":422,"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/409\/revisions\/422"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fredtorssander.se\/fredpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}